2.4 - The Core Strategy

This section sets out the key elements that comprise the core strategy including an assessment of the location and quantum of appropriately zoned lands available to accommodate the population and housing targets for the city, detailed above. It is a central function of the core strategy that it demonstrates that there is sufficient zoned suitable land to meet the requirements of the projected targets.

Climate Change

Central to the entire core strategy is the clear purpose of driving forward the steps necessary that deliver climate action. Dublin City is uniquely placed to provide for new housing in locations that fully support sustainable forms of development and allow large numbers of people live, move and work in a way that limits their carbon footprint. City life provides the critical mass that creates the opportunity for people to engage with a wide range of services and social opportunities as well as a work location all within distances that are well served by high quality public transport, premium cycle routes and an attractive public realm. This development plan seeks to implement a core strategy that continues to build mixed use communities within the city that can sustain and grow a low carbon society (see Chapter 3 for greater detail.) This development plan also seeks to support the principle of "Just Transition" to ensure that no members of society are left behind when transitioning to a zero carbon society.

2.4.1.  Land Capacity Assessment

Dublin City Council covers an area of just under 12,000 hectares, with just over 10,000 hectares of land zoned (the remaining unzoned lands comprises of road carriageways, footpaths and rail corridors). The 10,000 hectares of zoned land is divided between the 14 zoning objectives, nine of which can provide for residential use, namely Z1, Z2, Z3, Z4, Z5, Z8, Z10, Z12 and Z14. These nine zoning objectives, in total, make up 5,800 ha of the overall zoned landbank.

A land capacity analysis was carried out by the Planning Department to calculate the yield of undeveloped land; with a particular focus on the 17 Strategic Development Regeneration Areas that are prioritised for development over the development plan period (see also Chapter 13). Of this 5,800 ha of land zoned for residential or mixed (including residential) uses; it has been estimated that there are approximately 550 hectares available to develop during this development plan cycle which can provide approximately 49,175 residential units.

The analysis undertaken demonstrates that Dublin City Council has the capacity to accommodate the required need of 40,000 residential units over the development plan period within its administrative area. The breakdown of this available land and associated housing capacity is detailed in Table 2-8 and Table 2-9 below.

Integration of the Core Strategy and Settlement Hierarchy

The core strategy is shaped and driven by the overall vision outlined in the settlement strategy, with significant new housing delivery framed within the overall settlement hierarchy for the city targeted at (1) the inner city; (2) along key high quality transport corridors as set out by the RSES and MASP and within Key Urban Villages and (3) on key brownfield and infill opportunity sites with the Tier1 RSES area (which encompasses the entire council area) to support NPO3a, b and c and NPO11. The settlement strategy recognises there is a strong overlap between these categories within the hierarchy with many key SDRA sites fitting within two or three elements.

Table 2-8:    Core Strategy and Settlement Hierarchy

Settlement Hierarchy	Relevant SDRAs/Strategic Lands	Character and general density applied*	Proposed Zoned Area	Proposed Residential Yield	Estimated population
INNER CITY
City Core	Docklands (SDRA 6 and KUV)	Mixed use	24	7,900	15,800
	Dolphin House (SDRA 12)	Residential	6	350	700
	Grangegorman/ Broadstone (SDRA 8)	Primarily education/ health	11.5	1,200**	3,000
	Heuston and Environs (SDRA 7)	Mixed use	14	1,250	2,500
	Liberties & Newmarket Square (SDRA 15)	Mixed use	30	2,500	5,000
	Markets Area and Environs (SDRA 13)	Mixed use	8	400	800
	North East Inner City (SDRA 10)	Mixed use	12	850	1,700
	St. Teresa’s Gardens (SDRA 11)	Residential and open space	13	1,500	3,000
	Werburgh Street (SDRA 17)	Mixed use	2	0	0
	St. James’s Healthcare Campus and Environs (SDRA 14)	Primarily health	-	-	-
	Other KUVs- Phibsborough
MASP CORRIDORS
North East Corridor	Clongiffin/Belmayne (SDRA 1 and KUV)	Mixed use	52	6,950-7,350	14,700
	Oscar Traynor Road (SDRA 16)	Residential and open space	17	850	1,700
	Other KUVs- Santry (Omni), Northside, Donaghmede	Mixed use
North West Corridor	Ballymun (SDRA 2 and KUV)	Primarily residential	35	2,200-2,350	4,700
	Finglas Village Environs and Jamestown (SDRA 3 and KUV)	Mixed use	52	2,800	5,600
	Glasnevin***	Mixed use regen	-	-
South West Corridor	City Edge/Inchicore lands***	Mixed use regen	-	-
	Emmet Road (SDRA 9)	Primarily residential	15	1,050	2,100
	Naas Road (SDRA 5 and KUV)	Mixed use	18	3,300	6,600
	Park West and Cherry Orchard (SDRA 4)	Residential and open space	49	2,500-3,100	6,200
	Other KUVs- Ballyfermot, Crumlin	Mixed use
South East Corridor	Other KUVs- Rathmines	Mixed use
	Sub-total		358.5ha	35,600 – 36,750 residential units	74,100 persons
URBAN CONSOLIDATION
City Centre within M50	Infill/smaller scale Brownfield and opportunity sites	Primarily residential	187.5	12,900	23,220
TOTAL			546	48,500 -  49,650	97,320

*Densities from extant LAPs/SDZs/existing permissions are included; over and above that, potential yields outside of these areas are estimated using standard densities of 200 units per hectare (uph) for inner city areas and 100 uph for areas in the suburbs, where sites are primarily residential.  For mixed use zonings the figures are reduced to take account of the impact of other non-residential developments.

**Refers to primarily student and supported residential accommodation.

KUVs outside of SDRAs present opportunities for some densification and infill, however the housing yield of this is not quantified due to the highly speculative and underdetermined nature of such estimation.

*** these lands are not yet zoned for residential purposes but it is anticipated that they will, through the variation process, come forward for first phase of development during the lifetime of the plan.

 

Capacity of SDRA Lands

The SDRA lands are critical to the core strategy. All SDRAs (both new and previously identified) have been examined to determine capacity for future housing growth, taking into account sustainable densities and relevant SDZs and LAPs where relevant. This detailed assessment gave a potential yield from the 17 SDRAs of between 35,600 – 36,750 new dwellings on approximately 358 hectares. (Table 13-1 in Chapter 13 shows a breakdown of these figures by individual SDRA).

It is the intent of the Council to monitor and keep under review the core strategy and particularly the implementation of the SDRAs during the life of the development plan; and propose changes, if necessary, to secure successful implementation of the core strategy.

Capacity of Lands Outside of SDRAs

As part of the preparation of this development plan, a detailed analysis of the zoning maps was undertaken to identify lands that required changes to zonings under four main categories. These included:

1. zoning of lands to more appropriate uses to encourage infill development and implement elements of the Z6 Study completed under the 2016 Dublin City Development Plan;
2. the need to update the zoning where development is now complete;
3. the need to amend small scale anomalies and discrepancies and
4. the need to amend some community and amenity uses to more appropriate zoning objectives.

This analysis resulted in changes to an area of c. 300 hectares, of which, 200 hectares comprised of the above mentioned nine relevant zoning objectives that provide for housing.

Table 2-9 below sets out the area of existing zoned lands that accommodates both existing and potential new housing i.e. the area of land zoned at the end of the last development plan (including all zoning variations) that will remain zoned under the development plan period from 2022 - 2028. Table 2-9 also sets out the area of land which were the subject of a change of zoning as part of the making of this Plan.

Table 2-9:  Summary Table of Existing Zoned Lands with Housing Capacity and Zoning Changes

2022 – 2028 Plan Period (Existing zoned lands)	2022 – 2028 Plan Period (Zoning Changes to existing zoned lands)
Relevant zoning Objectives	Overall Area (Ha)	Available Area (Ha)*)	Capacity (residential units) of available area[1]	Relevant zoning Objectives	Overall Area (Ha)	Residential Capacity Estimate
Z1, Z2, Z3, Z4, Z5, Z8, Z10, Z12 & Z14	5,800	501	45,350	Z1, Z2, Z3, Z4, Z5, Z8, Z10, Z12 & Z14	200 (of which 45 have capacity)	2,500

 

Taking into account the number of reasons zoning changes have been made (as outlined above); only a portion of the zoning changes have a potential housing capacity. A significant portion of the zoning changes made reflect completions of new developments. These particular zoning changes are unlikely to provide any significant residential yields.

2.4.2  Summary - Total Land Capacity and Zoning Requirements

Table 2-10 summarises the potential capacity of zoned lands within the development plan; combining the SDRA areas with other city lands (including extant permissions and new zonings).There is zoned capacity for approximately 49,350 units on approximately 550 hectares of developable land within the lifetime of the development plan.

Table 2-10:    Total Capacity of City Lands

City Area Name	Estimated Capacity	Area (HA)
SDRA lands	35,600 – 36,750	358
Other City lands (excluding SDRAs)	13,000[2]	189
Current zoned total	48,600 - 49,750 Mid-range 49,175	550[3]
Potential lands at Glasnevin & Naas Road, Phase 1 (see Section 2.4.5)	6,000
Potential total	54,600 – 55,750 Mid-range 55,175

 

 

Based on this housing capacity, there is evidently sufficient zoned land to meet the needs of the population and housing targets set by the Ministerial Guidelines and the NPF. In addition to this, there are also significant regeneration lands[4]as yet not zoned for housing/mixed use that have potential to deliver additional housing which can be expedited to ensure that the core strategy is implemented in the appropriate timescale. For the purposes of clarity, these are included in Table 2-10 as potential lands.

 

The later phases of these land areas are currently proposed for housing and regeneration beyond the six year life of this development plan. In light of the Government strategy Housing for All, these areas will be considered for variation where they are associated with projects led by Dublin City Council and/or the Land Development Agency; with the core strategy updated to remain in accordance with the NPF and RSES.

 

The Core Strategy Compliance Table, Table 2-11 below, sets out the level of exceedance at approximately 23%. This headroom is considered in line with the 20 – 25% surplus identified in the Development Plan Guidelines, published June 2022.

 

Table 2-11:     Core Strategy Compliance Table

Appropriately Zoned Lands Available (Ha) 2022 - 2028	Residential Capacity of Available Land (Residential Units)	Housing Need Demand Requirement (Residential Units)	Exceedance (%)
550	49,175	40,150	9,025 (23%)

 

In considering the capacity analyses set out above, regard must be had to the historical trends for housing delivery as detailed in Section 2.2.1 above and the fact that there are significant complexities in delivering housing on brownfield lands in urban areas including issues such as economic viability, site assembly and site ownership, funding, timescales for delivering the necessary physical infrastructure and the nature of speculative land management.

The SDRA areas targeted for housing growth in this development plan are aligned to existing and planned public transport corridors and guided by national policy set out in the NPF and RSES. They provide for planned, integrated and sustainable growth over a number of development plan periods for Dublin City Council. Most of the land targeted for new housing in the city is located in SDRAs, which are for the most part, brownfield and regeneration sites. These SDRAs will take long periods of time to be fully delivered, with many running across two development plan cycles to reach completion.

To achieve the high quality, integrated approach necessary for successful regeneration, it is critical that the entire envelope of these lands is zoned for development and subject to detailed master-planning and/or local statutory plans that address how they will be delivered over time. This challenge is recognised in the recently published Development Plan Guidelines (June 2022). The full build-out of these strategic areas will accord with the timeframes of the RSES until 2031 and the NPF until 2040.

Alongside these strategic lands, there are smaller scale infill opportunities on vacant or redevelopment sites within zoned areas across the city which are likely to come forward during the lifetime of the development plan, and will also play an important role in contributing to meeting the housing targets and this is recognised within the core strategy (see Table 2-10, Other City Lands).

2.4.3  Housing Strategy and HNDA

Housing Strategy

A Housing Strategy has been prepared to meet the statutory requirements set out under the Planning and Development Act 2000 (as amended) and in particular, Part V of said Act. The Act requires each planning authority to prepare a housing strategy which will cover the period of its development plan. The Housing Strategy forms an integral part of the Dublin City Development Plan by incorporating national and regional housing policies and housing demand and supply requirements at a local level. The Housing Strategy is set out in Appendix 1.

Following the publication of National and Regional level planning policy, the Housing Strategy is now supported by an evidence-based interim Housing Need Demand Assessment (HNDA).

The conclusion of the HNDA and Housing Strategy is that Dublin City Council will require the maximum allowable provision (currently up to 20%) under the Planning Act (as amended) for social, affordable purchase & cost rental housing need as part of future planning permissions, reflecting the high levels of demand within the city. The HNDA modelling indicates that over the six-year plan period of 2023-2028, there is an estimated need for 10,247 social homes in Dublin City as well as 7,887 affordable homes; 4,997 households are estimated to be able to access private ownership in Dublin City, while 4,088 households are estimated to be able to meet their needs in the private rental market.

Housing Need Demand Assessment

HNDA is a tool that is aimed at assisting local authorities to develop long term strategic views of housing need across all tenures, and to provide a robust evidence base to inform policies around housing and to support the preparation of housing strategies. HNDAs are designed to give broad, long-run estimates of potential future housing need, rather than precision estimates. The HNDA is set out in Annex 1 to Appendix 1.

The total housing need figure over the development plan period used in the HNDA is a combination of a household projection scenario (in this case the Convergence Scenario) and an estimate of existing unmet housing need spread over a longer time period; as discussed in the HNDA. It is the policy of the Council to provide fully for the unmet demand during the lifetime of this development plan, whilst recognising that the scale of construction required to meet the target is significant.

The HNDA results in relation to the affordability of housing reflect the impact of rising house and rental prices alongside low levels of construction of both social and private housing over the previous decade.

2.4.4 Tiered Approach and Phasing

The NPF tiered approach under NPO 72a requires a local authority to differentiate between zoned lands that are serviced and zoned lands that are serviceable within the life of the development plan. Dublin City is exceptional in that the entire development plan area is fully zoned and located within the metropolitan area of Dublin. Whilst there may be local infrastructural needs and upgrades needed for certain sites, all lands within the city are capable of being serviced and/or are connected to the public water systems. All are located proximate to public transport networks and public road and cycle routes. A detailed infrastructural capacity assessment is included in Appendix 10.

All SDRA lands, identified in Table 2-8 above are aligned with the RSES strategic development areas. All of these areas have a short to medium term phasing schedule and can be implemented at any time independently, with the exception of the Kylemore Road/Naas Road lands which are given a medium to long term phasing schedule by RSES. This is because the wider Kylemore Road/Ballymount/Naas Road area is significant in scale and requires both significant investment, statutory planning and phasing. The SDRA at the Naas Road (former LAP lands) will be implemented in the short term, reflecting the long standing zoning of this area for regeneration purposes.

2.4.5  Future Development Areas

As part of a major review of Z6 and Z7 zoned lands across the city during the lifetime of the 2016 Dublin City Development Plan, a number of large scale, industrially zoned lands were identified as having significant potential for regeneration as new mixed use communities. A number of these lands were zoned for this purpose by way of variation of the 2016 development plan and have been included in this development plan in the capacity analysis.

Two significant areas identified in the Z6 and Z7 zoned lands study remain mostly zoned Z6 within the development plan:

• Kylemore Road/Naas Road lands (currently the focus of the City Edge Project, see www.cityedge.ie) and
• Glasnevin (the Dublin Industrial Estate and surrounding lands).

It is the intention of Dublin City Council, following the completion of feasibility studies for these industrial lands, to seek government approval for the appropriate statutory designation of these lands and to bring forward the early regeneration of these strategic lands.

These land-banks fall under the RSES strategic development areas called ‘Industrial Lands’ where the potential is given as ‘re-intensification of older industrial lands subject to feasibility’. Any feasibility carried out on these lands over the course of the development plan period will include a service capacity investment audit detailing infrastructural requirements to necessitate the densification and intensification of the areas given locational proximity to existing public transport corridors.

The scale and extent of both areas is significant and has great potential to provide high quality new housing and commercial development within the city and to progress the NPF targets for housing delivery on brownfield lands within urban areas. However, there are significant challenges in delivering such lands including provision of physical and social infrastructure, fragmented land ownership and the challenges of implementation. It is likely that the regeneration of these lands will be over a long time frame and the overall impact on the core strategy for this development plan will be limited to the first phases. This possibility has been accounted for in Table 2-10 above. In the face of such challenges, this development plan recognises the importance of good community consultation and will engage with residents on a proactive basis and take on views where applicable. See also Priority Statutory Local Plans under Section 2.7.1 below for objectives relating to both these areas.

 

[1]The hectarage and capacity figures includes SDRA capacity plus estimated capacity of other lands zoned in the 2016 Plan

[2] This figure includes the changes of zoning outlined in Table 2-9 added to extant permissions in non-SDRA locations, rounded from 12,900 from Table 2.8.

[3] Number averaged and rounded for ease of reference.

[4] Section 2.4.5 provides more information on these lands.